Yikes, has it really been more than a month since we've posted??

The reasons for this are twofold:
1. It's been a rather boring second half of the hurricane season. This season, there has been 30% less cyclone days than an average year.
2. Life gets hectic sometimes. I was in Bermuda for the summer and when I got back, I had to deal with TheFiancee moving in, TheFiancee finishing up her Master's Degree on top of the normal stuff, like Penn State football and graduate school. Bryan has also been up to his ears in work this semester. All in all, not the best times for us to be posting. That said, we here at the StormTrack apologize for our lack of posting and will try to do a better job from now on.

With all of that business aside, let's talk about Noel. Currently, Noel is spinning just off the coast of Cuba, where it is nearly stationary. The thunderstorm activity you see in the infrared satellite image (Figure 1) is displaced to the northeast of the center due to southwesterly wind shear.

Figure 1. Infrared satellite image of Noel. Bright colors indicate the highest cloud tops of thunderstorms.

From here, Noel will have a chance to intensify for the next twenty-four hours or so. It is possible that tropical storm force winds will reach the east coast of Florida, but these will not have severe effects. However, that said, there is a tropical storm watch posted from Ocean Reef, FL to Jupiter Inlet, FL. Residents of Florida should be aware of the high winds, but not much damage is expected.

After that, Noel will turn quickly to the northeast and away from the Continental United States. By Friday and Saturday however, both Bermuda and Canadian Maritimes will have to deal with a powerful extratropical storm (Figures 2 and 3), as Noel is forecast to undergo extratropical transition and possibly become a warm seclusion.

Figure 2. Noel - Track Forecast

Figure 3. Noel - Wind Speed Forecast

A warm seclusion is large, symmetrical storm that often forms at high latitudes when there is sufficient warm water. You can think of it like a circular warm front. Warm seclusions often have large wind fields and winds near hurricane strength in the center. Still, this is an extratropical storm, albeit a formidible one. An example is shown below, with the red line showing the warm front and blue showing the cold front.

Figure 4. An example of a warm seclusion. Note that the red line is the warm front and blue is the cold front.

In short, our forecast for Karen was right on. Over the past 24 hours Karen approached hurricane strength but right before getting sheared apart. Now her core is exposed and she is steadily weakening down from 70 to 65 mph winds.

Karen - Infrared satellite

Steady weakening is expected as Karen passes out to sea.

Karen - Track Forecast

Karen - Wind Speed Forecast

Karen - Watches and Warnings

Elsewhere in the Atlantic, Tropical Depression Thirteen has strengthened into minimal 40 mph Tropical Storm Lorenzo. Lorenzo is expected to soon move onshore and impacts should be minimal. Next on the list? Melissa! I have high hopes for that one.

Lorenzo - Infrared satellite

Lorenzo is unlikely to strengthen much further and will soon be ashore.

Lorenzo - Track Forecast

Lorenzo - Wind Speed Forecast

Tropical Storm advisories have been posted for the Mexican coast if you have interests in the area.

Lorenzo - Watches and Warnings

Tropical Storm Karen is looking a little better on satellite imagery, but remains poorly organized. In the last 12 hours convection has deepened over the center of circulation, but there is little organized banding and Karen remains a minimal tropical storm. It is possible that this is the start of a strengthening phase since this is the first time that I've seen Karen actually look like a real tropical storm.

Karen - Infrared satellite

All of the models keep Karen well away from land, but the intensity is not well agreed upon. At this point, it looks likely that the system will reach tropical storm strength and pass harmlessly out to sea. Some of the models that are getting excited about Karen seem to be underestimating the strength of the shear. Right now my best guess is for gradual strengthening over the next couple of days but not reaching hurricane strength. However, the intensity forecast remains very uncertain given the insistence of the models.

Karen - Track Forecast

Karen - Wind Speed Forecast

Karen is expected to move to the north-northeast and slowly strengthen. However, increasing shear and cooling waters should limit its strength and prevent the system from becoming a hurricane. Karen is only a bare minimal tropical storm with 40 mph winds and a 1005 mb central pressure at this time.

Karen - Watches and Warnings

Elsewhere in the Atlantic, Tropical Depression Thirteen has recently formed in the Gulf of Mexico. There has been only sporadic convection within TD Thirteen so don't get too excited. The storm remains very weak and is nearly stationary.

TD Thirteen - Infrared satellite

Very slow organization is possible, and perhaps probable, but I am not holding my breath. This system hasn't been doing too much, but does have a very well defined surface circulation. I expect TD Thirteen to eventually reach tropical storm strength, but no more than that.

TD Thirteen - Track Forecast

TD Thirteen - Wind Speed Forecast

TD Thirteen remains in the middle of the Gulf and should gradually drift west-southwestward toward Mexico. Any system is the Gulf deserves watching, but I don't anticipate a significant threat from this system.

TD Thirteen - Watches and Warnings

This morning Tropical Depression Twelve was upgraded to Tropical Storm Karen. However, the system isn't looking much more impressive. The banding remains only loosely organized and convection is not very deep.

Karen - Infrared satellite

All of the models keep Karen well away from land, but the intensity is not well agreed upon. At this point, it looks likely that the system will reach tropical storm strength and pass harmlessly out to sea. Some of the models that are getting excited about Karen seem to be underestimating the strength of the shear. However, the intensity forecast remains very uncertain given the insistence of the models.

Karen - Track Forecast

Karen - Wind Speed Forecast

Karen is expected to move to the north-northeast and slowly strengthen. However, increasing shear and cooling waters should limit its strength and prevent the system from becoming a hurricane. Karen is only a bare minimal tropical storm with 40 mph winds and a 1005 mb central pressure at this time.

Karen - Watches and Warnings

This evening QuikScat again proved it worth in identifying Tropical Depression Twelve in the Atlantic. In reality, TD Twelve seems to already be approaching tropical storm force. However, due to a lack of organization the system will likely not be upgraded until at least morning.

TD Twelve - Infrared satellite

The models are not excited about TD Twelve's development and all keep the storm well away from land. At this point, it looks likely that the system will reach tropical storm strength and pass harmlessly out to sea.

TD Twelve - Track Forecast

TD Twelve - Wind Speed Forecast

TD Twelve is expected to move to the north-northeast and slowly strengthen. However, increasing shear and cooling waters should limit its strength and prevent the system from becoming a hurricane.

TD Twelve - Watches and Warnings

Late this morning Subtropical Storm Jerry formed in the open Atlantic Ocean. Jerry is not looking impressive on satellite and is running out of time to strengthen. To be honest, without the dying QuikSCAT satellite, I sincerely doubt this system would ever have been upgraded. Jerry has a chance to become fully tropical later today, but by tomorrow conditions will be unfavorable for further strengthening.

SubTS Jerry - Infrared satellite

The models are not excited about Jerry's development and all keep the storm well away from land.

SubTS Jerry - Track Forecast

SubTS Jerry - Wind Speed Forecast

Maximum sustained winds are at 40 mph, barely tropical storm force, and the system is stationary. A gradual northeast drift is expected over the next couple of days.

SubTS Jerry - Watches and Warnings

While it is not exactly what I would call an 'organized' system, Subtropical Depression Ten has formed from the non-tropical disturbance in the Gulf. I am hardly not at all ready to call this system tropical at this time, but advisories are being issued for political reasons. As NHC put it in their discussion:

ALTHOUGH THE AMOUNT OF CONVECTION
PRESENT PROBABLY STRAINS THE DEFINITION A BIT...BECAUSE OF THE
POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT RIGHT ALONG THE COASTLINE...
ADVISORIES ARE BEING INITIATED ON SUBTROPICAL DEPRESSION TEN.

SubTD Ten - Infrared satellite

I expected this system to gradually drift west-northwest along the Gulf Coast over the next 24 hours. However to reiterate, I do not expect significant impacts from TD Ten. We are currently processing the model output and will bring you track forecast graphics when they become available.

SubTD Ten- Track Forecast

SubTD Ten - Wind Speed Forecast

Honestly I am not a fan of this Sub TD classification. Generally for a system to be considered subtropical, convection must be organizing to form a low-level warm core around the center of circulation, which is obviously not present in this case. However, NHC cannot issue tropical storm advisories without an active system, so they created one. After Humberto's 'surprise' appearance in Texas, NHC is trying to avoid a repeat performance if possible. Along those lines, Tropical Storm Warnings are now up for the northern Gulf Coast. Chances for hurricane force winds anywhere along the Gulf Coast are under 5%, strong tropical storm force winds under 10%, but weak tropical storm force wind probabilities are around 30% for the Pensacola, Alabama, and Mississippi coasts.

SubTD Ten - Watches and Warnings